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SSRs have three key advantages in promoting ZEVs. They provide assurance to manufacturers because they apply to all competitors in a market. They also increase the availability and diversity of zero-emission products; this helps boost demand from consumers. Finally, SSRs are easier to administer and enforce than programs aimed at consumers, as the number of manufacturers is typically small.

Best practices that have proven successful in SSR implementation include setting goals aligned with energy or economic objectives, measuring fleet-average compliance, establishing credit banking and trading systems, and creating frameworks for monitoring and reporting.

• The most effective regulations align with larger climate, clean air, or energy goals while providing interim targets that facilitate experience with new technologies and ramp up economies of scale.
• Fleet-average compliance systems reduce the cost of following the regulations and incentivize industry innovation and investments; weighting factors can help ensure that manufacturers do not overly rely on smaller HDVs for compliance.
• Well-designed credit systems encourage early compliance and advance technology adoption while avoiding excess credit accumulation through appropriate time limits.
• Public disclosure of compliance data helps build confidence and trust in regulations, especially during technology transitions.

The post Supply-side regulations to accelerate the market for zero-emission heavy vehicles: Best practices from major policies appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Summary

Just over 14,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) were sold in 2024, up from 11,000 in 2023. Heavy trucks (above 12 tonnes) had a zero-emission sales share of 1.2% in 2024, up from 0.9% in 2023; light and medium trucks (below 12 tonnes) had a 10% zero-emission share, up from 6% in 2023; and buses and coaches saw a marginal increase to 17% in 2024 from 16% in 2023. Sale shares of zero-emission buses and coaches fluctuated from a low of 12% in the first quarter to a high of 26% in the fourth quarter, and electric city buses pushed this share significantly. When the sales share of zero-emission city buses breached 50% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it marked the first quarter in which sales surpassed internal combustion engine buses.

Germany led the increase in sales of zero-emission trucks: Its sales of zero-emission heavy trucks rose from 750 (1% share) in 2023 to 1,200 (1.7% share) in 2024, and its sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks rose from 1,600 (7% share) in 2023 to 2,700 (16% share) in 2024. In other major vehicle markets such as Spain and Italy, which were a combined 6% of EU-27 sales in 2024, sales of zero-emission trucks remained low despite these markets accounting for nearly 20% of the conventional truck market.

Overall market developments

In 2024, sales of all HDVs were 360,000, down from 390,000 in 2023. This 8% drop was largely driven by a fall in sales in the third quarter, when the 74,000 vehicles sold was substantially lower than the 100,000 sold in the third quarter of 2023. Sales bounced back in the fourth quarter relative to the third by 12%, and 2024 ended with a similar sales volume as the same period in 2023. While Germany’s share of the market remained the same in 2024 as it was in 2023, France and Spain increased their shares by 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.

Manufacturer market shares shifted only slightly in 2024. Mercedes remained the top seller (19.6% of all HDVs) but captured less than the 21% of the market it had in 2023. Following behind were MAN with a 14% share, Iveco (13.1%), Volvo (12.8%), Scania (12.4%), DAF (10.1%), and Renault (7.8%).

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In 2024, heavy trucks were 77% of all HDV sales. Out of 275,000 heavy trucks sold, 3,400 (1.2%) were zero-emission vehicles. Sales in the segment contracted by 5% relative to 2023 when 290,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market still grew against the backdrop of this contraction, as the 2,600 zero-emission vehicles sold in 2023 were a 0.9% sales share.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 940 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold, representing a sales share of 1.5%, roughly the same volume and share as in the last quarter of 2023, when 950 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold (1.4% share).

Volvo Trucks maintained its leading position in the zero-emission heavy truck market in the fourth quarter of 2024, but its 33% share was a drop from its 43.5% share in the previous quarter. Renault trailed closely by selling 32% of all zero-emission heavy trucks and was followed by Mercedes with a 17% share.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the 300 units sold representing 32% of the market. Just five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark) were responsible for 90% of all zero-emission heavy trucks sales.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In 2024, light and medium trucks were 13% of all HDV sales. Out of 46,000 light and medium trucks sold, 4,800 (10%) were zero-emission vehicles. The segment contracted by 16% relative to 2023, when 55,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market grew against the backdrop of this contraction, though: In 2023, the 3,500 zero-emission sales were only 6% of the market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 1,500 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a sales share of 13%. In terms of volume and share, this is more than double the fourth quarter of 2023 when 780 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a share of 6%.

Germany was home to 55% of the zero-emission sales. The same five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden) were home to 88% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sales. Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2024, zero-emission vehicles were 48% of all light and medium trucks sales in Denmark and 42% in Sweden.

Ford regained its position as the leading seller of zero-emission light and medium trucks. The Ford E-Transit was the most popular zero-emission model in 2024 with 1,800 sold and it was followed by the Iveco eDaily (1,200 sold), the Mercedes eSprinter (560 sold), and the Fiat Ducato (430 sold). Combined, these four models were 83% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sold in 2024.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 3.4. Sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles by Member State in Q4 2024

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

In 2024, buses and coaches were 10% of all HDV sales. Out of 35,000 buses and coaches sold, 6,000 (17%) were zero-emission vehicles. The bus and coach market grew by 31% relative to 2023 when 27,000 vehicles were sold. The volume of zero-emission buses and coaches also increased in 2024 relative to 2023, when 4,500 zero-emission vehicles were sold; the sales share remained relatively constant at 17% in 2024 compared with 16% in 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 2,000 zero-emission buses and coaches were sold, 26% of total sales and an increase in both volume and share compared with the last quarter of 2023, when 1,600 (22% share) were sold. Over 50% of all city buses sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 were battery electric—zero-emission powertrains were more popular than combustion engines for the first time ever. Seven countries (Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Romania) only sold zero-emission city buses in the fourth quarter of 2024. That same quarter, sales share of zero-emission interurban buses and coaches increased to 6%, largely driven by a surge in electric minibuses sold by Iveco, Mercedes, and Ford.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Technology focus: Energy efficiency technology deployment 

Manufacturers are pursuing various strategies to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of their new HDVs, and all major manufacturers recently launched new technology packages that benefit the energy efficiency of both conventional and zero-emission vehicles. These include improvements in the aerodynamic design of truck cabins, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), lightweighting of various vehicle components, and, for conventional vehicles, more efficient engines and transmissions. All combined, fuel savings of up to 15% have been reported in the new generation of long-haul tractor-trailers compared with 2020-2021 trucks. 

New rules on truck cabin design implemented in 2021 allowed all major manufacturers to launch new, elongated truck cabins with significantly improved aerodynamics and other features such as air fenders, aero seals, under hood aerodynamic design improvement (closing gaps between components), side skirts, and improved windscreen design. Another innovation driven by the new safety requirements is the introduction of camera mirrors to replace traditional side mirrors; this reduces blind spots for increased safety and considerably reduces air drag on the side of the cabin. Improved aerodynamics have been reported to result in up to 5% fuel savings. 

ADAS have also become more widespread in the past few years. ADAS deliver up to 5% fuel savings compared with vehicles that are not equipped with the technology. Most importantly, predictive cruise control (PCC) adjusts the speed of the vehicle to gain momentum as it approaches hills, which reduces the impacts of positive road gradients on fuel consumption. Recent improvements in PCC algorithms were reported to deliver further 2% fuel savings. For conventional vehicles, through more efficient combustion, engine lightweighting, and gearbox automation and increased rear axle ratio enabling engine downspeeding, fuel savings of up to 8% have been reported.  

The post Race to Zero: European Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January–December 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools and Tesla, a large manufacturer not part of a pool, in 2024, including compliance credits, compared with their estimated 2024 targets.

Note: All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for details.

Passenger car registrations by country

Passenger car registrations in Europe increased slightly in 2024, reaching just over 10.8 million, and there were over 920,000 in December alone. While registrations in Poland increased 16% over 2023, those in Sweden fell 7% compared with the previous year. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 22% in Europe in 2024, down one percentage point from 2023. Norway (92%), Sweden (58%), and Denmark (55%) all had shares above 50%, and Finland (50%), the Netherlands (48%), and Belgium (43%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares well above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Belgium, where shares increased 9 percentage points in 2024 compared with 2023. In the Netherlands, new BEV registrations reached an all-time high of 47% in December, and the BEV sales share was 35% for 2024. After the phaseout of government subsidies at the end of 2023, BEV registrations dropped significantly in Germany to 14% in 2024 compared with 18% the previous year. Of the major markets, 2024 PHEV registration shares were the highest in Sweden (23%), HEV shares were highest in Poland (22%), and MHEV shares were highest in Italy (28%).

Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Passenger car registrations by owner

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May to only 5% in October 2024.

Figure 4. New passenger car registrations by owner for 20 select European countries

Charging infrastructure development

Over 950,000 public charging points were installed in Europe by the end of 2024, up from around 700,000 at the end of 2023. For alternating current (AC) charging, this represents an increase of around 32% compared with the end of 2023. Direct current (DC) charging points showed even greater growth, increasing 61% over the end of 2023. Approximately 82% of Europe’s public charging points supply AC, while the remaining 18% supply DC. Norway, the country with the highest BEV market shares, also recorded the largest growth in DC chargers in 2024 compared with 2023 (+141%); Italy followed in second with a substantial increase in both DC and AC publicly accessible charging points of +76% and +72%, respectively. There were on average about 6.5 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans on the road in Europe at the end of December 2024, up from
4.2 at the end of 2023. With 43 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points per thousand passenger cars and vans, Norway continues to lead Europe in charging infrastructure, followed by Iceland (32), Denmark (26), and Sweden (21). Italy and Spain (both 2.7) remain well below the European average.

Figure 5. 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans in Europe by the end of December 2024

Note: The width of the bars represents stock size estimates as of the end of 2024. The unit 22 kW-equivalent is used to account for different power outputs while allowing for comparison among countries.

Table 10. Number of publicly accessible charging points installed by country and type of power output

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO₂ targets. For this publication, the 2024 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, and the main brands are: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Ford (Ford), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Smart), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Opel, Peugeot), Subaru-Mazda-Toyota (Lexus, Mazda, Subaru, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW), and Volvo-Polestar-Suzuki (Polestar, Suzuki, Volvo). For vans, the 2024 pools listed in “N1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, applies: Ford (Ford), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso), Renault-Nissan (Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Peugeot), Volkswagen (MAN, Volkswagen). Tesla is a large M1 manufacturer that is not part of a pool.

Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO₂ = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car and van registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system, which cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff, John German, Ashok Deo, and Athanasios Dimaratos, Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO₂ Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/ mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO₂ regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car and van registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta. Data for CO₂ emission levels additionally omits Romania. Charging infrastructure data are presented for the 27 EU members plus the four European Free Trade Association countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland).

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), Eco-Movement (charging points), European Environment Agency (EEA) (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits).

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO₂ data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities. Similarly, charging infrastructure data may also be retrospectively updated by Eco-Movement. Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available.

Test procedures: CO₂ values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO₂ targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms. Manufacturers can reduce their CO₂ level by up to 7 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO₂ emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO₂ Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https:// theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2024 CO₂ target value applies, depending on the average mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their 2024 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO₂ Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https:// theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturersperformance-2023-sept24/.

Charging point: As defined in the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, a charging point “means a fixed or mobile interface that allows for the transfer of electricity to an electric vehicle, which, whilst it may have one or several connectors to accommodate different connector types, is capable of recharging only one electric vehicle at a time, and excludes devices with a power output less than or equal to 3.7 kW the primary purpose of which is not recharging electric vehicles.”

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their own employees. New registrations data by registration type is aggregated for the following 20 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

From the authors: With the next stage of the European Union’s new vehicle carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions targets taking effect in 2025, lots of eyes are on automaker performance. To provide up-to-date data for discussion, we plan to release monthly updates on European passenger car registrations throughout 2025, and quarterly updates on van registrations and charging infrastructure developments.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans 2024 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Berlin, 5. Februar 2025—Im Januar 2025 wurden in Deutschland insgesamt 34.498 reine Elektroautos neu zugelassen, was einem Anstieg von 53,5 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahresmonat entspricht. Diese Zahlen gab das Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) heute in Flensburg bekannt. Der Anteil reiner Elektro-Pkw an den Neuzulassungen lag im Januar bei 16,6 Prozent—ein Zuwachs von 6,1 Prozentpunkten im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat.

Ein wichtiger Faktor für den Anstieg im Januar 2025 sind die seit Jahresbeginn verschärften CO₂-Zielvorgaben für Fahrzeughersteller bei Neuwagen auf EU-Ebene. Um Strafzahlungen für zu hohe Emissionen zu vermeiden, müssen Automobilersteller unter anderem den Absatz von Elektroautos steigern, etwa durch Preisnachlässe oder die Einführung kostengünstigerer Modelle. Bereits in den Jahren 2020 und 2021, als die Grenzwerte zuletzt verschärft wurden, stieg der Anteil der Neuzulassungen von reinen Elektro-Pkw deutlich an.

„Erste positive Zahlen für Januar 2025 deuten darauf hin, dass die Neuzulassungen von Elektrofahrzeugen auch aufgrund der verschärften CO₂-Zielvorgaben in den kommenden Monaten weiter steigen werden,“ erklärt Dr. Sandra Wappelhorst, leitende Wissenschaftlerin am International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) in Berlin. „Zusätzlich könnten gezielte politische Maßnahmen seitens der deutschen Bundesregierung, wie der weitere Ausbau der öffentlichen Ladeinfrastruktur sowie die mögliche Einführung einkommensbasierter Kaufanreize und Leasingangebote für Elektro-Pkw, die Nachfrage weiter steigern.“

Auch andere europäische Märkte zeigen Anfang des Jahres positive Tendenzen. In Frankreich lag der Anteil reiner Elektroautos an den Pkw-Neuzulassungen im Januar 2025 bei 17,4 Prozent (Vorjahresmonat 16,4). Im Vereinigten Königreich erreichten E-Autos einen Anteil von 21,3 Prozent (Vergleich Januar 2024: 14,7). Hier galten 2024 erstmals verpflichtende Ziele für Automobilhersteller zum Verkauf von emissionsfreien Neufahrzeugen. Anfang März wird die Europäische Kommission einen Aktionsplan zur Zukunft der Automobilindustrie vorstellen, dessen mögliche Auswirkungen auf den europäischen Elektroautomarkt noch abzuwarten sind.

ENDE

Pressekontakt
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

Über ICCT
Der International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) ist eine unabhängige, gemeinnützige Forschungsorganisation, die hochwertige, objektive Studien sowie technische und wissenschaftliche Analysen für Umweltbehörden bereitstellt. Unser Ziel ist es, die Umweltverträglichkeit und Energieeffizienz im Straßen-, Schiffs- und Luftverkehr zu verbessern, um die öffentliche Gesundheit zu schützen und den Klimawandel einzudämmen. Seit unserer Gründung im Jahr 2001 finanzieren wir uns durch Zuschüsse und Verträge von privaten Stiftungen und öffentlichen Institutionen.
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Executive summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decline rapidly to limit warming to well below 2 °C, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. The road transport sector, which accounts for more than one fifth of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, offers significant opportunities for emissions reduction through the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Multiple major economies have recently adopted regulations aligned with reaching 100% ZEV or electric vehicle (EV) sales for new cars and vans by 2035, signaling growing momentum for this transition.

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. In addition to policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in our previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023), we evaluate three updated scenarios: a Baseline 2024 scenario incorporating policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario aligned with Paris Agreement goals. The analysis reveals how recent policy developments have substantially increased projected ZEV uptake and provides insights into remaining gaps with a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.

Figure. Projected global well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C

This figure illustrates how policies adopted over the past 3 years have significantly reduced the projected emissions through 2050. The Baseline 2024 scenario shows projected emissions peaking by 2025 and declining thereafter, driven by regulations in major markets that require high ZEV shares for new vehicle sales along with continued market uptake underpinned by the falling costs of ZEVs.

This trajectory represents a marked improvement over the Baseline 2021 scenario, which accounts for policies as of August 2021, avoiding 23 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions cumulatively through 2050. If governments achieve their stated ambitions (as in the Momentum scenario), cumulative emissions will fall by an additional 13 billion tonnes. However, a significant gap remains between these scenarios and the Paris-aligned Ambitious scenario, which represents a trajectory for global ZEV uptake compatible with limiting warming to well-below 2 °C in combination with other policy measures.

The post Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Berlin, 14 January – In the European Union, transport remains the only major economic sector where carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have risen since 1990—but this trend may be changing. New projections suggest that recently adopted regulations have put road transport CO₂ emissions on a path to peak as early as 2025. Yet, this promising trajectory depends on maintaining existing CO₂ standards and could falter if regulations are weakened.

The International Council on Clean Transportation released today a new edition of its Vision 2050 series, examining zero-emission vehicle policies and market developments globally. The study analyzes vehicle sales, energy use, and emission trajectories through 2050, evaluating transport’s alignment with Paris Agreement goals.

This year’s findings reveal the critical impact of policies adopted in the past 3 years. Road transport emissions in the European Union are projected to peak at nearly 800 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025 and decline thereafter by around one-quarter by 2035. This accelerated decline marks a significant shift from earlier projections, reflecting the impact of the transition from conventional cars to zero-emission vehicles.

“Our analysis shows that Europe’s road transport sector is at a historic inflection point,” says Felipe Rodríguez, ICCT Europe Deputy Director. “A decade after the Paris Agreement, Europe is now turning the corner and transitioning to technologies, namely electric vehicles, that will ensure greater energy efficiency and far lower emissions. However, today’s good news carries a critical warning: weakening the current CO₂ targets for car and van manufacturers would jeopardize the decline in emissions, increasing the gap to meet our climate goals on time and undermining Europe’s role as a global beacon for other regions.”

EU road transport CO₂ emissions trajectory from 2020 to 2050  

Projected EU tank-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from road transport compared with an emissions pathway compatible with Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming under 2 °C 

Compared to a 2021 policy baseline, the EU’s world-leading regulations put in place over the past several years have closed by 73% of the gap needed to align road transport with a Paris Agreement-compatible trajectory, as reflected in the ICCT Ambitious scenario. The 2023 EU CO₂ standards for cars and vans, combined with the 2024 truck and bus standards review, have significantly narrowed the emissions gap: by 66% for heavy-duty vehicles and by 75% for light-duty vehicles.

Globally, the study shows a similarly positive finding: road transport CO₂ emissions and liquid fuels consumption could peak as soon as 2025. According to the baseline 2024 scenario, road transport CO₂ emission reductions in three of the largest vehicle markets—China, the European Union, and the United States—are projected to outpace emissions growth in other countries.

The stars of these global trends are three vehicle sectors: passenger cars, two- and three-wheelers, and transit buses. The fast-approaching total cost of ownership and purchase price parity between battery electric vehicles and conventional vehicles supports continued market uptake beyond regulatory requirements, though regulations are still the most promising policy lever to secure a Paris-aligned emissions trajectory.

END

For editors: 

The study considers different carbon emissions scenarios:

• Baselines 2021, 2023, 2024 consider road transport policies adopted until August of the correspondent year.
• Momentum scenario builds on baseline scenarios and considers additional proposed governmental policies and targets.
• Ambitious scenario considers the emissions trajectory compatible with the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well-below 2 °C.

Please use this link when citing the report: https://theicct.org/publication/vision-2050-global-zev-transition-2024-jan25

Publication title: Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024
Authors: Arijit Sen, Jacob Teter, and Josh Miller

Media contact
Susana Irles, communications@theicct.org 

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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Berlin, 6. Januar 2025—Im vergangenen Jahr 2024 wurden in Deutschland insgesamt etwas weniger Pkw neu zugelassen. Die Zahl der Neuwagen sank um ein Prozent auf 2,8 Millionen, wie das Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) heute bekanntgab. Der Anteil reiner Elektrofahrzeuge* an den Pkw-Neuzulassungen lag im Jahresdurchschnitt bei 13,5 Prozent. Dies stellt einen leichten Rückgang im Vergleich zu den 18,4 Prozent des Vorjahres dar.

Dieser Rückgang war insbesondere auf das Auslaufen der staatlichen E-Auto-Förderungen zurückzuführen. Im August 2023 wurde der Umweltbonus für Elektrofahrzeuge zunächst für Unternehmen beendet, Mitte Dezember 2023 dann auch für Privatpersonen. Infolgedessen sank der Anteil reiner Elektroautos unter den Pkw-Neuzulassungen im Januar 2024 auf 10,5 Prozent—stieg jedoch im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres wieder relativ stetig an. Ihren Höchststand für das Jahr 2024 erreichten Elektroautos im September mit einem Anteil von 16,5 Prozent aller Neuzulassungen.

„2024 war ein Übergangsjahr: Die CO₂-Ziele für Automobilhersteller blieben auf dem Niveau von 2021, sodass kein zusätzlicher Anreiz bestand, die Verkäufe von Elektroautos über das notwendige Maß hinaus zu steigern“, erklärt Dr. Peter Mock, Geschäftsführer von ICCT in Europa. „Ab 2025 gelten jedoch strengere Zielvorgaben. Wir erwarten daher einen signifikanten Anstieg der Verkaufszahlen, wie es auch schon zwischen 2019 und 2020 der Fall war.”

Unterdessen steigen die Elektroauto-Zulassungen in anderen europäischen Ländern deutlich an. Auch hier lässt sich der Einfluss politischer Rahmenbedingungen, wie etwa Zielvorgaben für Fahrzeughersteller, beobachten: Im Vereinigten Königreich erreichten reine E-Autos 20 Prozent der Neuzulassungen, da Hersteller dort 2024 eine Mindestquote von E-Autos erfüllen mussten. In Belgien führte eine Änderung der Dienstwagenbesteuerung jüngst zu einem starken Anstieg der Elektroauto-Zulassungen. Norwegen bleibt Vorreiter: Hier bereits 89 Prozent aller Pkw-Neuzulassungen aus.

*Neben reinen Elektrofahrzeugen wurden 2024 weitere 6,8 Prozent aller neuen Pkw als Plug-in Hybride zugelassen.

– Ende –

Pressekontakt
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

Über ICCT
Der International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) ist eine unabhängige, gemeinnützige Forschungsorganisation, die hochwertige, objektive Studien sowie technische und wissenschaftliche Analysen für Umweltbehörden bereitstellt. Unser Ziel ist es, die Umweltverträglichkeit und Energieeffizienz im Straßen-, Schiffs- und Luftverkehr zu verbessern, um die öffentliche Gesundheit zu schützen und den Klimawandel einzudämmen. Seit unserer Gründung im Jahr 2001 finanzieren wir uns durch Zuschüsse und Verträge von privaten Stiftungen und öffentlichen Institutionen.

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The post Pkw-Zulassungen 2024: E-Autos leicht rückläufig, deutliche Zuwächse für 2025 zu erwarten appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

To track the performance of different truck manufacturers toward meeting those targets, the European Environment Agency publishes the certified CO₂ emissions of new trucks in the European Union. The agency recently published trucks certification data for the third reporting period, extending from July 2021 to June 2022.

This analysis presents the CO₂ emissions performance of the top truck manufacturers, the different strategies manufacturers are pursuing to meet the 2025 EU CO₂ emissions targets:

• Fleet-average emissions for new trucks in the European Union have decreased by 0.56% annually between 2019 and 2021, far below the 2.5% annual reduction needed to meet 2025 targets.
• Scania, the only manufacturer on track to meet its 2025 targets, remained the least-emitting manufacturer for the third reporting period.
• IVECO remained the highest-emitting manufacturer in the 2021 reporting period, while MAN recorded the largest improvement in reducing CO₂ emissions between 2019 and 2021.
• DAF, MAN, and Mercedes-Benz mainly focused on improving the emissions performance of their diesel and natural gas vehicle fleet.
• IVECO, Renault, Scania, and Volvo pursued a mixed approach with continuous improvement in their conventional vehicle performance and an increasing share of zero-emission vehicles.

The 2021 fleet-average of specific emissions of originally regulated trucks decreased from 52.7 g CO₂/tkm to 52.1 g CO₂/tkm between 2019 and 2021, a reduction of 1.13%.

The post CO2 emissions from trucks in the European Union: An analysis of the 2021 reporting period appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.